REBNY Research: Real Estate Broker Confidence Index Q2 2020

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

The Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY) surveys its residential and commercial brokerage members quarterly, measuring their present and six-month forecasted confidence in New York City’s real estate market.

Brokers reflect on their professional dealings and report their outlook on an index of 0 to 10. The Commercial Broker Confidence Index covers all forms of commercial real estate, including but not limited to o ffice, retail and industrial space. The Residential Broker Confidence Index reflects both the sales and rental markets.

REBNY issues and collects the survey responses the last two weeks of each quarter. It is important to note that half-way through this survey window, June 15-30, New York City entered Phase Two of New York Forward and allowed for commercial offices and retail to permit tenants and customers on the properties.

Though the results of the most recent survey reveal a record low with an 11% drop in general real estate broker confidence between the first and second quarters of 2020, a breakout of the commercial and residential sectors indicates different prospects. While commercial broker confidence continued to decline for a second straight quarter, reaching its lowest historical level, residential broker confidence increased slightly in the same timeframe.

REAL ESTATE BROKER CONFIDENCE INDEX

In the second quarter of 2020, current real estate broker confidence was 3.30 out of 10, an 11% decrease since brokers were last surveyed in the first quarter of 2020 and a 50% decline since the same time last year.

The survey results similarly indicated a decline in market sentiment six months from now, with an index at 3.91, an 11% decline from the first quarter of 2020 and a 35% decline since the same time last year.